faith, life, depression, struggle

Friday, June 19, 2009

... or is he?

Peter Schiff is sometimes right, and he's sometimes wrong -- like every other economic/market writer out there. Another economic writer, Mike Shedlock ("Mish"), points out that Schiff's positions aren't always the best things for his clients -- at least not in 2008:
I have talked with many who claim they have invested with Schiff and are down anywhere from 40% to 70% in 2008. There are many other such claims on the internet. They are entirely believable for the simple reason Schiff's investment thesis was flat out wrong.
So, what's the upshot? I don't think anybody knows what's likely to happen, bull or bear. The more smug and dogged someone is, the likelier it is that person is wrong, though. The world is much, much more complex than bulls and bears like to admit, or even both sides in the global warming/climate change debate. (And yes, there is a debate; science is never "settled," as some like to claim, and scientific truth is never reached by consensus.)

Fact is that millions of people are going to retire soon with enormously less in their investment vehicles than they had, largely because of all the smiling/talking heads on financial shows and other forms of money media. Peter Schiff has been a welcome bromide, reminding us that an economy based on nothing but debt and consuming more and more cannot be sustained. But he's no oracle; no one is. Either way, don't believe the hype.

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